Premier League preview No10: Manchester CityAfter treading water under Roberto Mancini last season, Manuel Pellegrini should have City moving forward once again
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Link to video: Manchester City: Premier League 2013-14 preview Guardian writers' predicted position: 2nd (NB: this is not necessarily Paul Wilson's prediction but the average of our writers' tips)
Last season's position: 2nd
Odds to win the league (via Oddschecker): 9-4
Manchester City supporters still disconsolate over the removal of Roberto Mancini at the end of last season will be able to console themselves with a newly published book about the Italian, generously titled The Man Who Restored Pride.
It is of course debatable as to what extent the manager did that on his own, for it seems only fair that a sizeable portion of credit should also go to Sheikh Mansour and the Abu Dhabi money that made the 2011-12 title win possible, but if Mancini was responsible for turning City into a fighting force and making them all too briefly the best team in the country, the man who restored pride managed to misplace it again the very next season.
City trod water last term, some would say they actually went backwards. In what was generally agreed to be a non-vintage edition of the Premier League they were never convincing or confident as the defending champions, while in the Champions League, admittedly in an extremely tough group, even Vincent Kompany has admitted they were "very, very bad".
So now a new manager has been brought in, the chap responsible for turning Villarreal and Málaga into Champions League threats and the coach who was in charge of Real Madrid the season before José Mourinho took over, and the impression before a ball has been kicked is that City are moving forward once again, not standing around feeling unsure of what to do next. The club's summer transfer business has been brisk and decisive, which is not something that can be said about many of their rivals. A sum approaching £90m has already been spent, and Manuel Pellegrini is suggesting he may not have finished yet. Rumours have persisted all summer linking the Real Madrid defender Pepe with City, but whether that happens or not Pellegrini is likely to be in the market for an extra central defender since Matija Nastasic will miss at least the first month due to an injury picked up on a pre-season tour.
Of the new players already at the club, the midfielders Fernandinho and Jesús Navas were announced as done deals in early June, and while others dithered, City pounced to bring in fresh strikers in Stevan Jovetic and Alvaro Negredo. While some feel Jovetic in particular was overpriced at £22m, City have the money to spend and clearly thought it important to buy first and ask questions later. The new pair are replacing Carlos Tevez and Mario Balotelli, both good players but extremely high maintenance. After what must (sadly) be viewed as a failed experiment with Balotelli, City's policy at the moment appears to be more sensible and straightforward. It is not necessary to go for the most expensive players on the market, still less the most wayward. Just make sure you have enough attacking options, and buy proven individuals who can fit into the adventurous passing game the coach favours. City pushing the boat out to bring Zlatan Ibrahimovic to Manchester before the window closes may just be wishful thinking on the part of supporters who still see statement signings as the way ahead. Under Pellegrini, marquee names seem likely to be a lesser priority than a team ethic.
Pellegrini managed to improve all the teams he managed in Spain, so there seems no reason why he should not have the same effect in Manchester. He only lasted a season at Real Madrid, but that says more about the club than the manager. He was up against Barcelona at their very best and lost the title by three points, despite reaching a higher points total (96) than Real Madrid had managed before. He would later claim that the club's Galácticos policy had left him with a collection of talented individuals rather than a balanced team, and presumably he is finding the situation at City much more to his liking. He is certainly losing no time in making the team his own. Not scoring enough goals was a big part of the problem last season, so he has already drafted in four attacking players. As City still boast forwards of the quality of David Silva and Sergio Agüero, both players who will be familiar to Pellegrini, it will be a surprise if the club's strike rate remains sluggish in the new season.
Defensively City are still fairly sound, even if reports of interest from Barcelona and Paris Saint-Germain over Kompany will worry supporters. The captain does more than merely lock the defence, when he plays well confidence spreads from the back. City did not score many goals last season – Liverpool, who finished seventh, scored more – but they did not concede many either. With only 34 goals against their defence was the tightest in the division, and only Manchester United lost fewer matches.
Pellegrini will therefore feel he has something to work on, and while his first target ought to be converting a few more draws into wins in order to get closer to his neighbours and rivals, his second will probably be to improve City's somewhat dismal standing in Europe. Whether many supporters would prioritise the Champions League is a moot point. Most would happily settle for finishing on top of the domestic pile once again and perhaps reaching the Champions League knockout stage. Pellegrini may not see it like that, partly because his reputation is largely based on Champions League achievement, and partly because Europe appears to be the area where City have most room for improvement. He will also be aware that, for a change, he is the only manager in Manchester with a Champions League track record.
If Pellegrini can bring his experience and knowhow to bear while David Moyes is still finding his feet City could conceivably make a greater impression in Europe than United this season, though much depends on the difficulty of their respective groups. Relative European newcomers and thus far underachievers, City will inevitably be drawn against stronger opponents than Champions League regulars such as United or Arsenal.
European distractions apart – and another disappointingly early exit could undermine the new manager's position and impact on domestic results – City remain one of the very few sides with a realistic chance of winning the title. The others being United and Chelsea, unless Tottenham spring a very large surprise with the Gareth Bale bounty. Both United and Chelsea also have new managers, though Chelsea's new manager is in fact an old one. Mourinho is seen as a plus for Chelsea, Moyes as something of a risk (at least for his first season or so) at United. Pellegrini slots in somewhere inbetween. A safe pair of hands, by all accounts, but still in his first season in a new country.
Carlo Ancelotti was the last person to turn up in this country and win the Premier League title at the first attempt, before him it was Mourinho. The accepted wisdom was that such a thing was not possible, at least Sir Alex Ferguson always used to say it would take a new foreign coach at least a year to get up to speed in England, but that was before Chelsea beat United to the title in 2005 and 2010. Anything seems possible now, and City making the necessary improvement to finish one place higher than they did last season would not be the greatest of shocks. Pellegrini will need to keep an eye on Mourinho, but he will be used to that. Making sure that league form does not suffer because of adventures in Europe could be his biggest challenge.
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