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PostPosted: Sat Nov 22, 2014 12:37 am 
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Hey Folks,

I'm a betting enthusiast when it comes to the Premier League and enjoy analysing each weeks fixtures to find that one bet that they bookies overpriced due to recent form and injuries.

Hopefully this thread will make ye a profit and provide a bit of banter along the way. I will be betting level stakes on every bet and recording the log using level stakes ROI - and not showing any supporters bias along the way:)

---

I'm going to start off the log with what I consider to be a very safe bet, albeit with low odds, I think this bet has a ROI of 28% which any gambler will tell you is extremely good.

Man City v Swansea Betting Preview:

Man City are already 8 points off the lead in the Premier League so they have to start racking up the wins with Chelsea talking of going the whole season unbeaten but Swansea are a very tough test with a tight defense when they play away to the big teams and we can expect them to set up to be extremely difficult to break down especially with Aguero back to his best.

Everyone is impressed with Swansea except apparently the bookies so we have seen a drift in Man City to win from 1.29 to 1.4 which is still too short in my opinion against a team of Swansea's quality, especially after they outplayed Arsenal in their last game so confidence will be high. In Montero, Swansea have a top class winger and Bony up front can put away any chances that he can create. Swansea also were able to stop Arsenal from having a shot on target for the opening 43 minutes so they won't be completely overrun by the Man City attack. Gylfi Sigurdsson has scored or assisted nine Premier League goals this season and looks dangerous every time he receives the ball.

Man City also have to think about their Champions League match against Bayern Munich on Tuesday which they need to win to have any chance of progressing in the tournament so their motivation in this game might not be as high as expected even with their poor recent form of 1 win from their last 6 in all competitions whereas Swansea have only lost once in their last 6 league games. Only Southampton (7) have kept more clean sheets than Swansea (5) during this campaign.

David Silva (knee), left-back Aleksandar Kolarov and striker Edin Dzeko (both calf) have all been ruled out for Man City. Vincent Kompany was pictured back in training on Thursday and could face Swansea. Jonjo Shelvey will come back for Swansea after finishing his suspension for a red card against Everton.

Recommended Bet: Swansea +2 Asian Handicap - 1.425 Bet365

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PostPosted: Sat Nov 22, 2014 10:49 am 
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Whsts with the decimal odds...
were english and we like imperial measurements...

can you tell me the odds in my 30 match acculminlator..

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PostPosted: Sat Nov 22, 2014 12:56 pm 
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Decimal odds are significantly easier to understand than fractional format.

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PostPosted: Sat Nov 22, 2014 2:51 pm 
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ManagerXI wrote:
Decimal odds are significantly easier to understand than fractional format.

were city mate, we don't do easy... :|

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PostPosted: Sat Nov 22, 2014 5:49 pm 
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And we're off with a win: Man City 2-1 Swansea

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PostPosted: Sun Nov 23, 2014 1:39 am 
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ManagerXI wrote:
And we're off with a win: Man City 2-1 Swansea


Your recommended bet was Swansea :confused:

Shouldn't that read "And we're off with a loss" ?


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PostPosted: Sun Nov 23, 2014 2:30 pm 
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Its not that difficult to understand and most bets are self explanatory:

Swansea +2 Asian Handicap means that:

If Swansea win - the bet wins
If Swansea draw - the bet wins
If Swansea lose by 1 goal - the bet wins
If Swansea lose by 2 goals - you get your money back
If Swansea lose by 3+ goals - the bet loses

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PostPosted: Mon Nov 24, 2014 2:09 pm 
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ManagerXI wrote:
Its not that difficult to understand and most bets are self explanatory:

Swansea +2 Asian Handicap means that:

If Swansea win - the bet wins
If Swansea draw - the bet wins
If Swansea lose by 1 goal - the bet wins
If Swansea lose by 2 goals - you get your money back
If Swansea lose by 3+ goals - the bet loses


Oh, I see. The +2 is like giving Swansea a 2 goal start?

I'm not familiar with this betting malarcy so you'll have to explain things.

When do I get my money?


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 24, 2014 3:22 pm 
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The +2 is like giving Swansea a 2 goal start? - Exactly.

For bets on the Premier League with Bet365 you should get your money within an hour of the game finishing usually.

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PostPosted: Mon Nov 24, 2014 5:00 pm 
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ManagerXI wrote:
The +2 is like giving Swansea a 2 goal start? - Exactly.

For bets on the Premier League with Bet365 you should get your money within an hour of the game finishing usually.

why are you here?

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PostPosted: Sat Nov 29, 2014 12:39 am 
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To chat with football fans about a football related topic - the same as almost everybody else on the forum:)

I'll post up a bet around noon, I'm waiting for more recent team news.

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PostPosted: Sat Nov 29, 2014 12:54 am 
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ManagerXI wrote:
To chat with football fans about a football related topic - the same as almost everybody else on the forum:)

I'll post up a bet around noon, I'm waiting for more recent team news.


A win for Arsenal is the best bet today. And a win for Villareal is best bet tomorrow.

There, we don't need you....


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PostPosted: Sat Nov 29, 2014 2:41 pm 
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Man Utd v Hull Betting Preview:

This is not a great weekend for Premier League bettors with short prices, loss of form for a few teams, midweek European matches and important injuries to the old reliables which all make this weekends meetings a minefield due to the home/away fixtures so this weekends bet will be slightly higher risk than normal.

Man Utd are starting to look like a more coherent attacking unit, even with Fellani running around banging into people but it is their defence that remains their achilles heel. They started the last game against Arsenal with a back 3 of Blackett, McNair and Smalling which is easily the most inexperienced defence in the league which is only being saved by De Gea pulling off a string of fine saves. Luke Shaw is unavailable after twisting his ankle to add to the defensive injury list of Blind, Rafael, Jones and Evans. Radamel Falcao and Marcos Rojo have returned for United.

While on paper Hull would be considered relegation fodder as they have won 2 from 12 games and conceded 17 goals in the process they have had an incredibly tough run of fixtures in that stretch facing most of the top teams but have showed they possess a goal threat having scored 2 goals against both Arsenal and Man City. Gaston Ramieriez will be suspended after his red card against Tottenham last week while Hull will also be without striker Abel Hernandez for the game. The Uruguayan has had to travel back to South America where his partner is due to give birth.
While I expect Man Utd to win this game their odds of 1.33 are far too short but due to their defense they will have to score at least twice more than likely to win the game. Manchester United have won the last nine straight matches against Hull City including all six meetings in the Barclays Premier League. Hull have won just one of their last 11 Premier League away games (D4 L6).

Recommended Bet: Man Utd to score 2 or 3 Goals - 1.95 Ladbrokes (Home Team Goal Bands)

Man Utd: De Gea, Smalling, Carrick, Rojo, Valencia, Fellaini, Mata, Di Maria, Young, Rooney, van Persie
Hull: McGregor, Chester, Dawson, Davies, Robertson, Brady, Diame, Elmohamady, Livermore, Ben Arfa, Jelavic

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PostPosted: Sat Nov 29, 2014 5:16 pm 
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Man Utd 3-0 Hull

Utd looked very slick today and it was good to see Mata back playing in the center. Falcao returned from injury and looked dangerous so we will see now how Van Gaal will fit him, Rooney and Van Persie into the same team.

The next round of Premier League fixtures starts on Tuesday so I will be back then with my next bet.

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PostPosted: Sat Nov 29, 2014 6:37 pm 
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ManagerXI wrote:
Man Utd 3-0 Hull

Utd looked very slick today and it was good to see Mata back playing in the center. Falcao returned from injury and looked dangerous so we will see now how Van Gaal will fit him, Rooney and Van Persie into the same team.

The next round of Premier League fixtures starts on Tuesday so I will be back then with my next bet.


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 02, 2014 7:13 pm 
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West Brom v West Ham:

West Brom (15th) host West Ham (5th) in this evening’s game. West Brom are on a bad run of form at the moment with just 1 win from their last 6 league games and having failed to score in their last 3. In Berahino they have a good goal threat with 7 goals in 13 appearances this season but unfortunately for West Brom he is really their only goal threat as nobody else has scored more than 1 league goal this season whereas West Ham's last seven Premier League goals have been scored by seven different players. West Brom sit just two points above the relegation zone while the impressive West Ham are coming off an impressive win against the inform Newcastle who had won their 6 previous games in all competitions before falling to defeat against West Ham. West Brom record signing striker Brown Ideye was bought for £10m from Dynamo Kiev over the summer but at the moment he is struggling to make the match day squad and from all appearances looks to be a flop.

West Ham have lost only 2 of their away league games this season while scoring an average of 2 goals in those games and they welcome back Enner Valencia from injury who has been a revelation this season and his pace has troubled every defence he has faced and considering that West Brom have Claudio Yacob suspended for this match who would have been tasked with containing Valencia however that job will fall to Mulumbu tonight and while he is comparable, Yacob would have been better suited to reading the game to cut off Valencia's runs. West Brom also have other important defensive injuries with Jonas Olsson, Silvestre Varela and Sebastien Pocognoli with Cristian Gamboa starting in place of Pocognoli at left-back.

In West Hams last game their defense was immense with a back 4 of Cresswell, Tomkins, Collins and Jenkinson who worked very well together to double up on Newcastles players and cover for eachother when caught out of position with Andy Carroll even running back to defend and if they approach this game in the same way then West Brom will struggle to score.

Up front for West Ham alongside the impressive Valencia is the rejuvenated Stewart Downing who has been incredible for West Ham this season now that he is operating at the tip of a midfield diamond and West Ham are perfectly set up to hit teams on the counter which they should have a lot of success with if West Brom attempt to play an open game tonight. Diafra Sakho (West Ham top scorer) is expected back this weekend after aggravating a back injury but West Ham have a readymade replacement in Andy Carroll who has massively improved his work ethic and is an aerial threat from set pieces.

In West Broms last game against Arsenal they were totally dominated for the opening 75 minutes and allowed Arsenal a lot of scoring opportunities while in the game before that West Brom allowed Chelsea 21 shots on goal and West Brom have now won just 3 of their last 16 league games, 2 of which were against Burnley and Leicester. Five of the last seven Premier League meetings between West Ham and West Brom have ended as draws, with one win apiece in the other games in that run.

Recommended Bet: West Ham to win or draw (double chance) - 1.57 Coral

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 02, 2014 9:35 pm 
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ManagerXI wrote:
West Brom v West Ham:

West Brom (15th) host West Ham (5th) in this evening’s game. West Brom are on a bad run of form at the moment with just 1 win from their last 6 league games and having failed to score in their last 3. In Berahino they have a good goal threat with 7 goals in 13 appearances this season but unfortunately for West Brom he is really their only goal threat as nobody else has scored more than 1 league goal this season whereas West Ham's last seven Premier League goals have been scored by seven different players. West Brom sit just two points above the relegation zone while the impressive West Ham are coming off an impressive win against the inform Newcastle who had won their 6 previous games in all competitions before falling to defeat against West Ham. West Brom record signing striker Brown Ideye was bought for £10m from Dynamo Kiev over the summer but at the moment he is struggling to make the match day squad and from all appearances looks to be a flop.

West Ham have lost only 2 of their away league games this season while scoring an average of 2 goals in those games and they welcome back Enner Valencia from injury who has been a revelation this season and his pace has troubled every defence he has faced and considering that West Brom have Claudio Yacob suspended for this match who would have been tasked with containing Valencia however that job will fall to Mulumbu tonight and while he is comparable, Yacob would have been better suited to reading the game to cut off Valencia's runs. West Brom also have other important defensive injuries with Jonas Olsson, Silvestre Varela and Sebastien Pocognoli with Cristian Gamboa starting in place of Pocognoli at left-back.

In West Hams last game their defense was immense with a back 4 of Cresswell, Tomkins, Collins and Jenkinson who worked very well together to double up on Newcastles players and cover for eachother when caught out of position with Andy Carroll even running back to defend and if they approach this game in the same way then West Brom will struggle to score.

Up front for West Ham alongside the impressive Valencia is the rejuvenated Stewart Downing who has been incredible for West Ham this season now that he is operating at the tip of a midfield diamond and West Ham are perfectly set up to hit teams on the counter which they should have a lot of success with if West Brom attempt to play an open game tonight. Diafra Sakho (West Ham top scorer) is expected back this weekend after aggravating a back injury but West Ham have a readymade replacement in Andy Carroll who has massively improved his work ethic and is an aerial threat from set pieces.

In West Broms last game against Arsenal they were totally dominated for the opening 75 minutes and allowed Arsenal a lot of scoring opportunities while in the game before that West Brom allowed Chelsea 21 shots on goal and West Brom have now won just 3 of their last 16 league games, 2 of which were against Burnley and Leicester. Five of the last seven Premier League meetings between West Ham and West Brom have ended as draws, with one win apiece in the other games in that run.

Recommended Bet: West Ham to win or draw (double chance) - 1.57 Coral

id ban him if he wasn't at the least a new member...

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 03, 2014 4:31 pm 
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Captain Kevin Nolans return to the West Ham starting lineup in place of Mark Noble was the catalyst for their come from behind win at West Ham who held on for an impressive win in a typically hard fought manner even when West Brom played with 5 strikers in the closing minutes in what could be best described as a 3-2-1-4 formation with West Brom goalkeeper Ben Foster also wandering around in the West Ham half.

West Brom 1-2 West Ham

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 03, 2014 5:45 pm 
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Do you get some commision or summat.
you just post shit no one reads in this thread..
fon..

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 04, 2014 8:34 pm 
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As opposed to all of us posting shit barely anyone else reads in other threads?


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