Manchester City Forums

thats about right..

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I Belong To City
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BJWB.1920-31/12/2010.

I am so glad this thread started. I felt compelled to write in it.

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KYPU

Well if i wanted betting tips, i would see you for them...they all lose like, but still....

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I Belong To City
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BJWB.1920-31/12/2010.

Aston Villa v Leicester Betting Preview:

After avoiding the carnage yesterday where Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal and Tottenham all failed to win odds on against inferior teams I am looking to the bottom of the table for a bet today.

Aston Villa have been performing below expectation this season with a poor record of W4 D4 L6 and they lie in 12th position and this can be largely explained by their lack of goals as they have scored just 8 goals in 14 matches, the lowest in the league. Their form in the league is not great either with a record in their last 6 games of W1 D3 L2 however they are improving now on their overall season form without a defeat in their last 4 league games with draws in that run against this seasons surprise packages West Ham and Southampton and it should be noted that their last 4 home league games were against Southampton, Tottenham, Man City and Arsenal so their home stats are skewed by such a run against the top teams at a time when they were in good form also.

Regarding their lack of goals this season they have welcomed back last seasons top scorer Christian Benteke in their last game after a long injury layoff and he duly scored the winner in that game so now that Villa can go back to playing with their preferred front 3 of Benteke, Agbonlahor and Weimann we should see their average goals per game increase however Weimann will be suspended for this game due to an accumulation of yellow cards. There are some issues with Villas defence at the moment with injuries to Baker, Senderous and Vlaar but their center back stand in's of Okore and Clark have been performing reasonably well while they have the experience of fullbacks Hutton and Cissokho to help negate the threat of Leicesters wingers Schlupp and Mahrez who are starting to find form however as Leicester are playing two out and out wingers with two strikers they have left themselves a bit short handed in the center of the park where Villas 3 man midfield of Cleverly, Westwood and Sanchez can dominate proceedings in the absence of Joe Cole who is out injured for the next two weeks.

Leicester have failed to win a game in the league since beating Man Utd back in September - a run that stretches 9 games including 7 losses and they have the second worse away record in the league with 6 losses in 7 games while scoring just 3 goals and they sit at the bottom of the table as they are the most out of form team in the league at the moment with a record in their last 6 league games of W0 D1 L5 and just before their first goal against QPR they had gone 504 minutes with scoring and failed to get a shot on target at Southampton.

Leicester captain, Wes Morgan, is suspended for this match and his absence will be a big loss in defence, especially when defending set pieces. David Nugent is a doubt with illness which has affected some of the squad but manager Nigel Pearson, who did not name others who were laid low, hopes any bug would have cleared by Sunday.

There is a high likelihood this game will end in a draw with Leicester sitting back and coming to Villa for a draw to stop their losing streak away from home but with Bentekes return they have a player who can unlock a tight defence if he can link up well with Agbonlahor whose pace on the wing will cause problems for Leicester even though the market does not fully agree with me as Villa have gone from 2.3 to 2.55 for the win.

Rcommended Bet: Aston Villa 'Draw No Bet' - 1.73 BetVictor

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Premier League jersey up for grabs to the winner of the ManagerXI Fantasy Premier League - Code: 461204-116154

Oh just shut your cockwasher.

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I am the way, the truth and the life.

Villa did the business despite Leicesters best efforts to send their midfielders to the emergency room while Leicesters main goal threat Leonardo Ulloa also had to go off injured after a tough retaliatory tackle. This was a particularly tough week for stats based gamblers where almost every game bucked the trend but there are two games this weekend that jumped out at me as a good bet so I will post one up after I have researched both fully.

Aston Villa 2-1 Leicester

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Premier League jersey up for grabs to the winner of the ManagerXI Fantasy Premier League - Code: 461204-116154

I beg to differ. I had both Madrid teams and Barca in a treble, Marseille and PSG in a double and a single on CITY - cleaned up I did.

By the way, we don't need all the guff. Bullet points would be acceptable, or better yet just give us the bets.

Real Madrid v Ludogorets - Real Madrid 1/8
Borussia Dortmund v Anderlecht - Borussia Dortmund 1/3
Bayern Munich v CSKA Moscow - Bayern Munich 2/7
Treble pays 0.92/1

Almeria v Real Madrid - Real Madrid 1/5
Getafe v Barcelona - Barcelona 1/4
Atletico Madrid v Villarreal - Atletico Madrid 4/6
Treble pays 1.5/1

Leicester v Man City - Man City 4/9
Chelsea v Hull - Chelsea 2/11
Double pays 0.7/1

Like that....

This is not a tip but an example of two bets at the same odds but with vastly different expected values.

Paddy Power are offering 1.44 on Arsenal to beat Newcastle this weekend after Newcastle beat league leaders Chelsea last weekend and they are offering 1.44 on Everton to beat QPR who are missing their top scorer and best player Charlie Austin through suspension.

If you want to practice trying to assess value you could compare these two games and try to decide the expected winning percentage of both Arsenal and Everton and from that the value offered by the odds.

I will be back with a tip on Saturday morning.

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Sunderland v West Ham Betting Preview:

Sunderland host an inform West Ham side who have made their best ever start to a Premier League season with 27 points after 15 games while Sunderland have failed to score in 7 of their last 11 Premier League games and 3 of their last 4 and are currently on a 5 game winless streak and their recent form leaves them just 2 points above the relegation zone.

West Ham have surpassed expectations this season and currently sit 4th in the Premier League, just 1 point behind Manchester United. West Ham have the third best away record in the league this season and all the expectations is that West Ham will continue this run of form against a Sunderland team who have won just 2 from their opening 15 games of the season.

West Ham have all their important players back from injury and Sam Allardyce will have to decide between starting Enner Valencia or Andy Carroll who scored 2 goals in West Hams very impressive victory over Swansea last week who can take advantage of West Hams good wide play to score from crosses and set pieces as West Ham have scored 12 headed goals this season, twice as many as any other Premier League side. Diafra Sakho is expected to start up front for West Ham and he has made a great start to life in the Premier League having scored 7 times in his last 8 Premier League appearances for West Ham while Stewart Downing has been incredible this season now that he is playing at the tip of a midfield diamond and has more Premier League assists this season (6 in 14 apps) than he managed in 65 games during his Liverpool career (5).

Sunderland have been involved in five 0-0 draws this season in the Premier League, more than any other side while there has been 25 goals scored in West Hams 7 away games this season so both teams will come into this game with very different game plans but West Ham have the advantage of having an extremely fast counter attack which is their main advantage when playing away and has resulted in them scoring 14 away goals and if Sunderland try to play an open game then West Ham will have the advantage as Sunderland can be expected to play Johnson and Wickham on the wings and they are not great when tracking back after their attack breaks down and their only defensive strength against West Hams style of play is their huge goalkeeper Pantilimon who at 6ft 8in is the favourite when the ball is sent high into the Sunderland box so we have to see if West Ham go for the pace and trickery of Valencia to counter this as Sunderlands expected center back pairing of Brown and O'Shea are in the twilight of their careers and don't have a hope of keeping up with him.

The midfield battle will be extremely important in this match and with Alex Song providing the steel in West Hams spine he will control the game in the middle of the park and Sunderlands central midfield pairing of Rodwell and Larsson have more of a brute strength approach which will be easily countered by Song and Kouyate in midfield who are backed up by the excellent understanding between the West Ham center back pairing of Tomkins and Reid and I expect Sunderland to go with just Fletcher up front who should be left isolated for the vast majority of the game as Sunderland will have to sit deep to counter West Hams pace while Sunderlands defensive midfielder Cattermole does not have the pace required to deal with West Hams interchangeable attacking players and it should be relatively easy for West Ham to play around him.

Recommended Bet: West Ham To Win Or Draw (Double Chance) - 1.44 Ladbrokes/Coral/SkyBet/Boylesports

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I am the way, the truth and the life.

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KYPU

Sunderland played their best game of the season against West Ham and were a much improved unit but West Ham still managed to edge the game on performance as Sunderland still lack a cutting edge up front as they score less than a goal a game and were gifted a goal in the first half from the penalty spot when Adam Johnson threw himself to the ground as if he had been shot by a tank when he noticed the shadow of James Tomkins behind him. Sunderland have now drawn 10 of their 16 league games this season and they are clearly set up not to lose rather than going for the win.

Sunderland 1-1 West Ham

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Premier League jersey up for grabs to the winner of the ManagerXI Fantasy Premier League - Code: 461204-116154

Does anyone object if I ban him?*




* I do realise I'm not a moderator but I have other powers.

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I am the way, the truth and the life.

God you're a miserable fucking lot aren't you?

smite him...with fire and brimstone.

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I Belong To City
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BJWB.1920-31/12/2010.

Hull v Swansea Betting Preview:

Hull (19th) host Swansea (9th) with both teams currently in poor form. Hull have won just 2 games this season with a recent record of W0 D2 L4 while Swansea have won 6 games this season they are in a slump at the moment with a recent record of W1 D2 L4 however this recent form includes losses against Man City, Tottenham and the in form West Ham. In that run of 6 games, except for the game against Man City, Swansea was the better team in all and it was simply bad luck in front of goal that they don't have a much better points tally however this run has provided us with the value for this weekends bet.

Swansea are a formidable team and they play a very exciting brand of football with a front three of Bony, Sigurdsson and Montero who have caused every team they faced problems this season. 17 of Swansea's 21 league goals this season have been either scored or assisted by one of Wilfried Bony or Gylfi Sigurdsson while Jefferson Montero has been getting the best of every right back with his incredible pace since his arrival from Mexico in the summer and Hulls Ahmed El Mohamady, who played at right back in their last game, does not possess the defensive ability to contain him. Wilfried Bony has scored eight goals in his last 10 Premier League appearances (20 goals in 2014). Swansea have no injury concerns ahead of the trip to Hull. Lukasz Fabianski returns in goal after missing the loss to Tottenham through suspension.

Hull are in freefall at the moment having won just one of their last 15 league and cup games and they are without a win in 9 games in the league since beating Crystal Palace at the beginning of October while scoring just 2 goals in their last 8 games. They will be missing some very important players for this game with Tom Huddlestone serving a 4-match ban after his red card and fifth yellow card of the season against Chelsea and Michael Dawson is a out for 3-5 weeks after tearing his hamstring and he has been the heart of Hulls defence this season while Huddlestone will be a major loss in midfield and Hull will struggle to maintain possession with him out of the side while Mohamed Diame will be unavailable until the new year and his powerful runs forward from midfield were almost unstoppable and forced defences to sit a bit deeper than they might have otherwise. Hull averages the lowest shots-per-game ratio this season, with just 9.2 and they are unlikely to get more than that against Swansea.

While I was tempted by the draw no bet market I will go for the more conservative double chance market as Swansea have failed to win in their last 6 away matches in the Premier League.

Recommended Bet: Swansea To Win or Draw (Double Chance) - 1.44 Coral

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Premier League jersey up for grabs to the winner of the ManagerXI Fantasy Premier League - Code: 461204-116154